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Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a （1)_____ theory as to how the economy wo

Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a (1)_____ theory as to how the economy works. Some theories are complicated, and their application requires an elaborate (2)_____ of cause and effect. Others are relatively simple, (3)_____ most developments in the economy to one or two basic factors. Many economists, for example, believe that changes in the supply of money (4)_____ the rate of growth of general business activity. Others (5)_____ a central role to investment in new facilities—housing, industrial plants, highways, and so forth. In the United States, where consumers (6)_____ such a large share of economic activity, some economy believe that consumer decisions to (7)_____ or save provide the principal (8)_____ to the future course of the entire economy. Obviously the theory that a forecaster applies is of (9)_____ importance to the forecasting process; it (10)_____ his line of investigation, the statistics he will regard as most important, and many of the techniques he will apply.

Although economic theory may determine the general (11)_____ of a forecast, judgment also often plays an important role. A forecaster may decide that the circumstances of the moment are (12)_____ and that a forecast produced by the (13)_____ statistical methods should be modified to take account of special current circumstances. This is particularly necessary when some event outside the Usual run of economic activity has an a (14)_____ economic effect. For example, forecasts of 1987 economic activity in the United States were more accurate when the analyst correctly foresaw that the exchange value of the dollar would (15)_____ sharply during the year that consumer spending would slacken, and that (16)_____ rates would rise only moderately. None of these conclusions followed (17)_____ purely economic analysis; they all required judgment as to future decisions (18)_____, an economist may decide to adjust an economic forecast that was made by traditional methods to take account of other unique (19)_____; he may, for example, decide that consumers will (20)_____ their spending patterns because of special circumstances such as rising price of imports or fear of threatened shortages.

A．specific

B．peculiar

C．unique

D．unified

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发布时间：2020-09-17
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更多“Formal economic forecasting is usually based on a （1)_____ theory as to how the economy wo”相关的问题

第1题

Text 3 The relationship between formal education and economic growth in poor countries i
s widely misunderstood by economists and politicians alike progress in both area is undoubtedly necessary for the social, political and intellectual development of these and all other societies; however, the conventional view that education should be one of the very highest priorities for promoting rapid economic development in poor countries is wrong. We are fortunate that is it, because new educational systems there and putting enough people through them to improve economic performance would require two or three generations. The findings of a research institution have consistently shown that workers in all countries can be trained on the job to achieve radical higher productivity and, as a result, radically higher standards of living.

Ironically, the first evidence for this idea appeared in the United States. Not long ago, with the country entering a recessing and Japan at its pre-bubble peak. The U.S. workforce was derided as poorly educated and one of primary cause of the poor U.S. economic performance. Japan was, and remains, the global leader in automotive-assembly productivity. Yet the research revealed that the U.S. factories of Honda Nissan, and Toyota achieved about 95 percent of the productivity of their Japanese countere pants a result of the training that U.S. workers received on the job.

More recently, while examing housing construction, the researchers discovered that illiterate, non-English- speaking Mexican workers in Houston, Texas, consistently met best-practice labor productivity standards despite the complexity of the building industry’s work.

What is the real relationship between education and economic development？ We have to suspect that continuing economic growth promotes the development of education even when governments don’t force it. After all, that’s how education got started. When our ancestors were hunters and gatherers 10,000 years ago, they didn’t have time to wonder much about anything besides finding food. Only when humanity began to get its food in a more productive way was there time for other things.

As education improved, humanity’s productivity potential, they could in turn afford more education. This increasingly high level of education is probably a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for the complex political systems required by advanced economic performance. Thus poor countries might not be able to escape their poverty traps without political changes that may be possible only with broader formal education. A lack of formal education, however, doesn’t constrain the ability of the developing world’s workforce to substantially improve productivity for the forested future. On the contrary, constraints on improving productivity explain why education isn’t developing more quickly there than it is.

31. The author holds in paragraph 1 that the important of education in poor countries ___________.

[A] is subject groundless doubts

[B] has fallen victim of bias

[C] is conventional downgraded

[D] has been overestimated

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第2题

Text 4As the twentieth century began, the importance of formal education in the United Sta

Text 4

As the twentieth century began, the importance of formal education in the United States increased. The frontier had mostly disappeared and by 1910 most Americans lived in towns and cities. Industrialization and the bureaucratization of economic life combined with a new emphasis upon credentials and expertise to make schooling increasingly important for economic and social mobility. Increasingly, too, schools were viewed as the most important means of integrating immigrants in to American society.

The arrival of a great wave of southern and eastern European immigrants at the turn of the century coincided with and contributed to an enormous expansion of formal schooling. By 1920 schooling to age fourteen or beyond was compulsory in most states, and the school year was greatly lengthened. Kindergartens, vacation schools, extracurricular activities, and vocational education and counseling extended the influence of public schools over the lives of students, many of whom in the larger industrial cities were the children of immigrants. Classes for adult immigrants were sponsored by public schools, corporations, Unions, churches, and other agencies.

Reformers early in the twentieth century suggested that education programs should suit the needs of specific populations. Immigrant women were one such population. Schools tried to educate young women so they could occupy productive places in the urban industrial economy, and one place many educators considered appropriate for women was the home.

Although looking after the house and family was familiar to immigrant women. American education gave homemaking a new definition. In preindustrial economies, homemaking had meant the production as well as the consumption of goods, and it commonly included income-producing activities both inside and outside the home, in the highly industrialized early twentieth-century, United States. However, overproduction rather than scarcity was becoming a problem. Thus, the ideal American homemaker was viewed as a consumer rather than a producer. Schools trained women to be consumer homemakers cooking, shopping, decorating, and caring for children "efficiently" in their own homes, or if economic necessity demanded, as employees in the homes of others. Subsequent reforms have made these notions seem quite out-of-date.

36. It can be inferred from Paragraph 1 that one important factor in the increasing importance of education in the United States was ______.

A) the growing number of schools in frontier communities

B) an increase in the number of trained teachers

C) the expanding economic problems of schools

D) the increased urbanization of the entire country

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第3题

根据下列文章，回答31～35题。The relationship between formal education and economic growth in
poor countries is widely misunderstood by economists and politicians alike. Progress in both areas is undoubtedly necessary for the social, political and intellectual development of these and all other societies; however, the conventional view that education should be one of the very highest priorities for promoting rapid economic development in poor countries is wrong. We are fortunate that is it, because building new educational systems there and putting enough people through them to improve economic performance would require two or three generations. The findings of a research institution have consistently shown that workers in all countries can be trained on the job to achieve radically higher productivity and, as a result, radically higher standards of living.

Ironically, the first evidence for this idea appeared in the United States. Not long ago, with the country entering a recessing and Japan at its prebubble peak, the U.S. workforce was derided as poorly educated and one of the primary cause of the poor U.S. economic performance. Japan was, and remains, the global leader in automotiveassembly productivity. Yet the research revealed that the U.S. factories of Honda, Nissan, and Toyota achieved about 95 percent of the productivity of their Japanese counterparts—a result of the training that U.S. workers received on the job.

More recently, while examining housing construction, the researchers discovered that illiterate, non-English-speaking Mexican workers in Houston, Texas, consistently met best-practice labor productivity standards despite the complexity of the building industry’s work.

What is the real relationship between education and economic development？ We have begun to suspect that continuing economic growth promotes the development of education even when governments don’t force it. After all, that’s how education got started. When our ancestors were hunters and gatherers 10,000 years ago, they didn’t have time to wonder much about anything besides finding food. Only when humanity began to get its food in a more productive way was there time for other things.

As education improved, humanity’s productivity potential increased as well. When the competitive environment pushed our ancestors to achieve that potential, they could in turn afford more education. This increasingly high level of education is probably a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for the complex political systems required by advanced economic performance. Thus poor countries might not be able to escape their poverty traps without political changes that may be possible only with broader formal education. A lack of formal education, however, doesn’t constrain the ability of the developing world’s workforce to substantially improve productivity for the foreseeable future. On the contrary, constraints on improving productivity explain why education isn’t developing more quickly there than it is.

第31题：The author holds in paragraph 1 that the importance of education in poor countries

A．is subject to groundless doubts.

B．has fallen victim of bias.

C．is conventionally downgraded.

D．has been overestimated.

点击查看答案

第4题

The relationship between formal education and economic growth in poor countries is widely
misunderstood by economists and politicians alike. Progress in both areas is undoubtedly necessary for the social, political and intellectual development of these and all other societies; however, the conventional view that education should be one of the very highest priorities for promoting rapid economic development in poor countries is wrong. We are fortunate that it is, because building new educational systems there and putting enough people through them to improve economic performance would require two or three generations. The findings of a research institution have consistently shown that workers in all countries can be trained on the job to achieve radically higher productivity and, as a result, radically higher standards of living.

Ironically, the first evidence for this ides appeared in the United States. Not long ago, with the country entering a recession and Japan at its pre-bubble peak, the U.S. workforce was derided as poorly educated and one of the primary causes of the poor U.S. economic performance. Japan was, and remains, the global leader in automotive-assembly productivity. Yet the research revealed that the U.S. factories of Honda, Nissan, and Toyota achieved about 95 percent of the productivity of their Japanese counterparts—a result of the training that U.S. workers received on the job.

More recently, while examining housing construction, the researchers discovered that illiterate, non-English-speaking Mexican workers in Houston, Texas, consistently met best-practice labor productivity standards despite the complexity of the building industry's work.

What is the real relationship between education and economic development？ We have to suspect that continuing economic growth promotes the development of education even when governments don't force it. Alter all, that's how education got started. When our ancestors were hunters and gatherers 10,000 years ago, they didn't have time to wonder much about anything besides finding food. Only when humanity began to get its food in a more productive way was there time for other things.

As education improved, humanity's productivity potential increased as well. When the competitive environment pushed our ancestors to achieve that potential, they could in turn afford more education. This increasingly high level of education is probably a necessary, but not a sufficient, condition for the complex political systems required by advanced economic performance. Thus poor countries might not be able to escape their poverty traps without political changes that may be possible only with broader formal education. A lack of formal education, however, doesn't constrain the ability of the developing world's workforce to substantially improve productivity for the foreseeable future. On the contrary, constraints on improving productivity explain why education isn't developing more quickly there than it is.

The author holds in Paragraph 1 that the importance of education in poor countries ______.

A．is subject to groundless doubts

B．has fallen victim of bias

C．is conventionally downgraded

D．has been overestimated

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第5题

A．NeverthelessB．ThereforeC．FurthermoreD．Hence fore

A.Nevertheless

B.Therefore

C.Furthermore

D.Hence fore

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第6题

Most economists in the United States seem excited by the spell of the free market. Consequ
ently, nothing seems good or normal that does not accord with the requirements of the free market. A price that is determined by the seller or, for that matter, established by anyone other than the aggregate of consumers seems harmful. Accordingly, it requires a major act of will to think of price-fixing (the determination of prices by the Seller) as both "normal" and having a valuable economic function. In fact, price-fixing is normal in all industrialized societies because the industrial system itself provides, as an effortless consequence of its own development, the price-fixing that it requires. Modern industrial planning requires and rewards great size. Hence, a comparatively small number of large firms will be competing for the same group of consumers. That each large firm will act with consideration of its own needs and thus avoid selling its products for more than its competitors charge is commonly recognized by advocates of free-market economic theories. But each large firm will also act with full consideration of the needs that it has in common with the other large firms competing for the same customers. Each large firm will thus avoid significant price-cutting, because price-cutting would be prejudicial to the common interest in a stable demand for products. Most economists do not see price-fixing when it occurs because they expect it to be brought about by a number of explicit agreements among large firms; it is not.

Moreover, those economists who argue that allowing the free market to operate without interference is the most efficient method of establishing prices have not considered the economies of non-socialist countries other than the United States. These economies employ intentional price-fixing, usually in an overt fashion. Formal price-fixing by cartel and informal price-fixing by agreements covering the members of an industry are commonplace. Were there something peculiarly efficient about the free market and inefficient about price-fixing, the countries that have avoided the first and used the second would have suffered drastically in their economic development. There is no indication that they have.

Socialist industry also works within a framework of controlled prices. In the early 1970's, the Soviet Union began to give firms and industries some of the flexibility in adjusting prices that a more informal evolution has accorded the capitalist system. Economists in the Unites States have hailed the change as a return to the free market. But Soviet firms are no more subject to prices established by a free market over which they exercise little influence than are capitalist firms; rather, Soviet firms have been given the power to fix prices.

Notes: spell 魔力; 一阵。aggregate 总体。

The primary purpose of the text is to _____.

A．refute the theory that the free market plays a useful role in the development of industrialized societies.

B．argue that price-fixing, in one form. or another, is an inevitable part of and benefit to the economy of any industrialized society.

C．show that in industrialized societies price-fixing and the operation of the free market are not only compatible but also mutually beneficial.

D．explain the various ways in which industrialized societies can fix prices in order to stabilize the free market.

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第7题

The effect of the baby boom on the schools helped to make possible a shift in thinking a

bout the role of public education in the 1920’s. In the 1920’s, but especially __1__the Depression of the 1930’s, the United States experienced a__2__birth rate. Then with the prosperity__3__on by the Second World War and the economic boom that followed it, young people married and__4__households earlier and began to__5__larger families than had their__6__during the Depression. Birth rates rose to 102 per thousand in 1946, 106.2 in 1950, and 118 in 1955. __7__economics was probably the most important__8__, it is not the only explanation for the baby boom. The increased value placed__9__the idea of the family also helps to__10__this rise in birth rates. The baby boomers began streaming__11__the first grade by the mid -1940’s and became a __12__by 1950. The public school system suddenly found itself __13__The wartime economy meant that few new schools were built between 1940 and 1945.__14__, large numbers of teachers left their profession during that period for better-paying jobs elsewhere.

__15__, in the 1950’s, the baby boom hit an antiquated and inadequate school system. Consequently, the custodial rhetoric of the 1930’s no longer made__16__; keeping youths ages sixteen and older out of the labor market by keeping them in school could no longer be a high__17__for an institution unable to find space and staff to teach younger children. With the baby boom, the focus of educators__18__turned toward the lower grades and back to basic academic skills and__19__. The system no longer had much__20__in offering nontraditional, new, and extra services to older youths.

1. A.in B.for C.at D.on

2. A.accelerating B.strengthening C.declining D.fluctuating

3. A.took B.produced C.brought D.carried

4. A.adopted B.incorporated C.administered D.established

5. A.increase B.raise C.erect D.generate

6. A.predecessors B.successors C.processors D.oppressors

7. A.Since B.Despite C.Although D.Unless

8. A.tenant B.determinant C.lubricant D.repentant

9. A.at B.on C.for D.with

10. A.demonstrate B.interpret C.exhibit D.explain

11. A.through B.across C.into D.towards

12. A.creek B.flood C. bonus D.pledge

13. A.overtaxed B.overdosed C.overweighed D.overlapped

14. A.Moreover B.However C.Otherwise D.Thus

15. A.Nevertheless B.Therefore C.Furthermore D.Hence fore

16. A.sense B.meaning C.sensible D.meaningful

17. A.notoriety B.compatibility C.proximity D.priority

18. A.refutably B.indispensably C.inevitably D.respectively

19. A.conference B.symposium C.seminar D.discipline

20. A.ability B.advantage C.benefit D.interest

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第8题

The period of adolescence, i.e., the period between childhood and adulthood, may be long o
r short, depending on social expectations and on society's definition as to what constitutes maturity and adulthood. In primitive societies adolescence is frequently a relatively short period of time, while in industrial societies with patterns of prolonged education coupled with laws against child labor, the period of adolescence is much longer and may include most of the second decade of one's life. Furthermore, the length of the adolescent period and the definition of adulthood status may change in a given society as social and economic conditions change. Examples of this type of change are the disappearance of the frontier in the latter part of the nineteenth century in the United States, and more universally, the industrialization of an agricultural society.

In modern society, ceremonies for adolescence have lost their formal recognition and symbolic significance and there no longer is agreement as to what constitutes initiation ceremonies. Social ones have been replaced by a sequence of steps that lead to increased recognition and social status. For example, grade school graduation, high school graduation and college graduation constitute such a sequence, and while each step implies certain behavioral changes and social recognition, the significance of each depends on the socio-economic status and the educational ambition of the individual. Ceremonies for adolescence have also been replaced by legal definitions of status roles, rights, privileges and responsibilities. It is during the nine years from the twelfth birthday to the twenty-first that the protective and restrictive aspects of childhood and minor status are removed and adult privileges and responsibilities axe granted. The twelve-year-old is no longer considered a child and has to pay full fare for train, airplane, theater and movie tickets. Basically, the individual at this age loses childhood privileges without gaining significant adult rights. At the age of sixteen the adolescent is granted certain adult rights which increases his social status by providing him with more freedom and choices. He now can obtain a driver's license: he can leave public schools; and he can work without the restrictions of child labor laws. At the age of eighteen the law provides adult responsibilities as well as rights: the young man can now be a soldier, but he also can marry without parental permission. At the age of twenty-one the individual obtains his full legal rights as an adult. He now can vote, he can buy liquor, he can enter into financial contracts, and he is entitled to run for public office. No additional basic rights are acquired as a function of age after majority status has been attained. None of these legal provisions determine at what point adulthood has been reached but they do point to the prolonged period of adolescence.

The period of adolescence is much longer in industrial societies because ______.

A．the definition of maturity has changed

B．the industrialized society is more developed

C．more education is provided and laws against child labor are made

D．ceremonies for adolescence have lost their formal recognition and symbolic significance

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第9题

The human nervous system differs from that of animals in thatA．man has more developed fore

The human nervous system differs from that of animals in that

A．man has more developed forebrain.

B．man can feel pains while animals can't.

C．man has different neural structures.

D．man's mental life is in nature different from that of animals.

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第10题

The divorce rate in Britain has leveled off—to roughly one marriage in three—and shows no
sign of reaching the much higher American rate, according to the demographers(人口统计学者) assembled in Bath last week for a conference on the family. There has been no increase in the rate in the last three years and although many expected it to rise a few more percentage points in the next decade, none believed it would reach the 50 percent that exists in America.

One reason for the stabilizations of divorce is the reduction in the risk factors—fewer teenagers marrying, fewer early births in marriage, fewer pre-marital(婚前的) conceptions.

Another reason which was aired at the annual conference of the British Society for Population Studies, was the increase in cohabitation. Some speakers argued that the increase in cohabitation has meant that marital couples are now much more familiar with each other before marriage and therefore less likely to separate.

One out of four couples who marry today have lived together and in the older age groups the proportion is much higher. Some 34 percent of women aged over 25 who marry have cohabited, and over 50 percent of women who are marrying a divorced man or who have been divorced themselves, cohabit before marriage.

Cohabitation in Britain, however, is still considerably lower than in many European states and was described by the demographers as "essentially a part of contemporary courtship". Only a small proportion of people who cohabited had children whereas in Sweden some 40 percent of births were now outside formal marriage. The British rate was 13 percent.

Kath Kiernan of the Centre for Population Studies noted that the present statistics suggested that there was a marginally higher risk of separation for couples who had cohabited, but this could possibly be explained by the fact that the statistics covered a period when cohabiting had not become as socially acceptable as it was today.

A third reason why the demographers thought the divorce rate could stabilize was the economic squeeze(利润等的缩减) and the recession(暴跌), which would mean there was less opportunity to separate because of the lack of housing and employment.

The phrase "levelled off" (Para. 1) most probably means ______.

A．increased

B．decreased

C．fluctuated

D．became stable

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